我校英国威廉希尔公司光峰涛老师在T2级别期刊——《Energy》上发表题为“Energy efficiency improvements and industry transition: An analysis of China's electricity consumption”。论文第一作者光峰涛为英国威廉希尔公司副教授。
Abstract / 摘要：
MT 关于居民收入和可支配收入的用电强度在我国电力消费中的作用存在有限的经验证据。此外,对电力消费增长率的变化关注较少。我们建立了一个对数平均Divisia指数模型来考察影响电力消费的因素以及是否存在影响电力消费的结构性变化。量化了2007年至2019年中国电力消费增速放缓的驱动因素。我们发现,2013 - 2019年当前新常态时期,我国电力消费与经济增长密切相关。电力消费率的下降与产业结构的调整和能源强度的下降有关。居民收入用电强度的降低也导致了降速。2014年,中国电力消费增速出现明显结构性断裂。我们的结论是,电力消费增长率的下降是结构性的,如果新出现的能源效率改善和产业转型持续下去,低平均年增长率将持续下去。因此,无论是用电量还是其影响因素,都应进行持续监测。政策应以促进能源效率和优化产业结构为目标。
原文 Limited empirical evidence exists on the role of electricity intensity of residential income and disposable income in China's electricity consumption. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the variation in the growth rate of electricity consumption. We develop a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to examine factors that affect electricity consumption and whether there are structural changes impacting electricity consumption. The drivers of slowing electricity consumption in China between 2007 and 2019 are quantified. We find that China's electricity consumption is closely associated with economic growth during the current New Normal period 2013–2019. Decelerated electricity consumption rate is linked to adjustments in industrial structure and a decline in energy intensity. Decreasing the electricity intensity of residential income also contributed to the decelerated rate. In 2014 there was a clear structural break in the growth rate of China's electricity consumption. We conclude that the decline in the electricity consumption growth rate is structural, and the low average annual growth rate will be sustained if nascent energy efficiency improvements and industry transition continue. Therefore, both electricity consumption and its influencing factors should be monitored continuously. Policies should be aimed at promoting energy efficiency and optimizing industrial structure.
论文信息;
Title/题目:
Energy efficiency improvements and industry transition: An analysis of China's electricity consumption
Authors/作者:
Guang Fengtao; Wen Le; Sharp Basil
Key Words / 关键词 ：
Electricity consumption; Structural break; Growth rate; LMDI; Index decomposition analysis
Indexed by / 核心评价 ：
SCI; Scopus; AHCI; EI; WAJCI; INSPEC;
Highlights/研究要点
• Measuring the impacts of socioeconomic factors on China's electricity consumption.;
• Quantifying the structural change in the growth rate of electricity consumption.;
• Industrial structure and energy intensity changes decreased electricity consumption.;
• Electricity intensity of residential income contributed to the decelerated rate.;
• Analyzing the future trend in the growth rate of electricity consumption.
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2021.122625
全文链接：https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544221028747
