龚承柱,龚年姣(学),齐睿,於世为Assessment of natural gas supply security in Asia Pacific: Composite indicators with compromise Benefit-of-the-Doubt weights

我校英国威廉希尔公司龚承柱老师在T1级别期刊——《Resources Policy》上发表题为“Assessment of natural gas supply security in Asia Pacific: Composite indicators with compromise Benefit-of-the-Doubt weights”。论文第一作者龚承柱为英国威廉希尔公司副教授。

Abstract /摘要：As the global natural gas consumption cores shifts eastward, the natural gas import market competition in the Asia Pacific is increasingly intensified. This paper presents a composite index for assessing the natural gas supply security to identify the challenges and provide a benchmark for policy analysis in Asia Pacific countries. The index is based on a comprehensive set of eight indicators including resource risk, structural risk, dependence risk, geopolitical risk, market risk, liquidity risk, infrastructure risk and transportation risk. To aggregate individual indicator into one composite index, the linear and data-driven Benefit-of-the-Doubt model is adopted to estimate the importance of various sub-indicators with compromise weights. Results reveal that the gas supply security in Asia Pacific natural gas importing countries presents a general decline-up-down trends. Furthermore, the gas supply security in China, India and Malaysia have fluctuated widely, the Japan and Korea are very close and stable, while the gas supply security of each country has gradually converged during the observation period. The appraisal method and corresponding findings could provide strategic options for gas importers with different characteristics and have important implications for exploring regional joint emergency mechanism and improve regional competitiveness.

论文信息;

Title/题目:Assessment of natural gas supply security in Asia Pacific: Composite indicators with compromise Benefit-of-the-Doubt weights

Authors/作者:Chengzhu Gong;Nianjiao Gong;Rui Qi;Shiwei Yu

Key Words /关键词：Natural gas;Supply security;Composite indicator;Benefit-of-the-Doubt model

Indexed by /核心评价：SSCI; Scopus; EI; WAJCI; INSPEC;

Highlights /研究要点

• We develop a composite index for assessing the gas supply security of Asia Pacific countries.

• A linear and data-driven Benefit-of-the-Doubt model is adopted to estimate the weight of indicators.

• The gas supply security of Japan and Korea are the most stable, while the China, India and Malaysia fluctuated widely.

• Joint emergency mechanism would reduce gas supply risk in Asia Pacific.Published：June 2020

DOI：10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101671

全文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142071930323X